The federal government’s Economic and Fiscal Overview, released in late April, has some encouraging statistics about the strength of Canada’s economy.
According to the report, prepared for the 2024 federal budget, the labour market is solid and there are more than 1.1 million Canadians employed now than before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report also says inflation is much lower now than in June 2022 when it peaked at 8.1 per cent. Wages are rising, resulting in more purchasing power for Canadians.
Further progress is anticipated, the report says. Economic growth is expected to increase while interest rates and inflation are expected to decline.
However, the information in this overview needs to be examined along with the latest figures about unemployment in Canada.
The most recent unemployment statistics, from March but released in April, showed a nationwide unemployment rate of 6.1 per cent. In British Columbia, the unemployment rate was 5.5 per cent, and some provinces had a five per cent unemployment rate.
Right now, these unemployment figures at these levels look positive, especially when compared with high unemployment rates during previous recessions.
At the same time, the federal government’s jobless rate numbers in this province and across Canada have been lower. One year earlier, in March, 2023, Canada’s unemployment rate was 5.1 per cent. In British Columbia, the rate was 4.6 per cent.
A forecast from TD Economics, released earlier this year, predicts Canada’s job market will continue to cool this year.
A report from Desjardins, also from early 2024, showed Canada’s population has been growing faster than its labour market. This is most noticeable in Ontario, but can be seen in Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia as well.
If the unemployment figures continue to trend upwards, it will affect those who are searching for jobs, especially students and recent graduates. This age demographic tends to have a higher unemployment rate than the rest of the workforce. The predictions about economic growth, increased purchasing power and lower interest rates are encouraging.
At the same time, the trends associated with the unemployment rate nationally and provincially must not be ignored.
Changes within the job market could affect the economic outlook for the country.
— Black Press